建立事故预测模型，进行道路安全综合评价是交通安全研究与分析的重要方法。传统的最大似然估计法在较为复杂问题的建模与分析方面有其不足，需要研究新的方法来解决新的问题。裴欣编著的《道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法》在对现有安全评估研究进行综述分析的基础上，建立了基于完全贝叶斯推论方法的道路事故风险与伤亡程度双层综合评价模型，并通过模型在路段和路口交通安全综合评价中的实际应用验证了综合评价模型的适用性与有效性。

裴欣编著的《道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法》在对现有道路交通安全评估研究进行综述分析的基础上，建立了基于完全贝叶斯方法的道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法。其核心——道路事故风险与伤亡程度双层综合评价模型，用以发掘各影响因素与道路安全的关联性，进行特定条件下交通安全状况的评估与事故风险预测；该模型架构简洁、结构灵活，模型求解可运用基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛仿真的完全贝叶斯方法。本书将这一综合评价模型分别应用于信号灯交叉口和道路路段，研究道路设计要素、危险暴露量和车速在路口和路段交通安全分析中的作用，验证了模型的适用性与有效性。

《道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法》可供从事交通安全相关研究的研究者参考，也可供对交通安全、交通工程、统计分析等相关专业感兴趣的人士参阅。

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

 1.1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION

 1.2 OBJECTIVES

 1.3 BOOK STRUCTURE

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

 2.1 EVALUATION CRITERIA AND PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE

2.1.1 Role of exposure in road safety analyses

2.1.2 Predictive models for crash occurrence

2.1.3 Predictive models for crash severity

2.1.4 Integrated models

 2.2 METHODS OF ANALYSES

2.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation

2.2.2 Full Bayesian method

 2.3 RISK FACTORS

2.3.1 Speed and road safety

2.3.2 Geometric and operational factors and road safety

2.3.3 Weather conditions and road safety

 2.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS

CHAPTER 3 MODELING FRAMEWORK

 3.1 MODELING APPROACH

3.1.1 Crash frequency models

3.1.2 Crash severity models

3.1.3 Joint probability models

 3.2 ESTIMATION METHOD

3.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation method

3.2.2 Bayesian method

 3.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS

CHAPTER 4 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS

 4.1 INTRODUCTION

 4.2 DATA

 4.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION

4.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence

4.3.2 Probability function for crash severity

4.3.3 Joint probability function

 4.4 RESULTS

 4.5 DISCUSSION

4.5.1 Quadrant 1: Significant factors affecting crash occurrence and crash severity

4.5.2 Quadrant 2: Significant factors affecting crash occurrence only

4.5.3 Quadrant 3: Significant factors affecting crash severity only

 4.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS

CHAPTER 5 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR ROAD SEGMENTS

 5.1 INTRODUCTION

5.1.1 Road safety on road segments

5.1.2 Role of exposure and speed in road safety analysis

 5.2 DATA

5.2.1 Crash database

5.2.2 Speed measurement

5.2.3 Traffic volume and exposure

5.2.4 Explanatory factors

5.2.5 Data summary

 5.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION

5.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence

5.3.2 Probability function for crash severity

5.3.3 Joint probability functions

 5.4 RESULTS

 5.5 DISCUSSION

5.5.1 Speed and road safety

5.5.2 Effects of explanatory factors

 5.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS

CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS

 6.1 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

 6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

6.2.1 Alternative models in an integrated modeling framework

6.2.2 Bayesian updating function with prior information

6.2.3 Disaggregated safety analysis

APPENDIX A MOVING OBSERVER METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION

 A.1 INTRODUCTION

 A.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT

 A.3 MODEL CALIBRATION

 A.4 MODEL VALIDATION

 A.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS

APPENDIX B GPS PROBE METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION

 B.1 INTRODUCTION

 B.2 DATA

 B.3 METHODOLOGY

B.3.1 Models for average travel speed

B.3.2 Models for speed dispersion

B.3.3 Full Bayesian method

 B.4 RESULTS

B.4.1 Average travel speed

B.4.2 Speed dispersion

 B.5 DISCUSSION

B.5.1 Average travel speed

B.5.2 Speed dispersion

 B.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS

REFERENCES